Kazakhstan’s National Bank cut its base rate to 16.25% as annual inflation slowed to 9.8%, while raising its 2027 inflation forecast to 6.5–8.5%.
Kazakhstan’s National Bank cut its base rate to 16.25% on 4 September 2026, with an interest rate corridor of ±1 percentage point, citing continued disinflation and lower inflation expectations.
Annual inflation slowed to 9.8% in August, its 11th consecutive monthly decline. Food inflation fell to 9.5%, non-food inflation to 11.4% and service inflation to 8.9%, while one-year-ahead inflation expectations declined to 12.1%.
The bank maintained its 2026 inflation forecast at 9–11% but raised the 2027 forecast to 6.5–8.5%, from 5.5–7.5%. Inflation is expected to approach the 5% target in 2028, while GDP growth is forecast at 4.5–5.5% in 2026 and 4–5% in 2028.
The National Bank said further rate cuts will depend on inflation, domestic demand, expectations and fiscal stimulus, with limited scope for easing amid rising inflation risks. The next rate decision is due on 23 October 2026.
