The IMF Spring Meetings are taking place from 13 to 18 April 2026. The meetings include press briefings on the latest issues of IMF publications, panel discussions involving prominent politicians and finance experts, presentations of analytical studies and civil society forums.
On 15 April 2026 the IMF held a press briefing to discuss the April 2026 issue of the Fiscal Monitor. At a time of high public debt, the war in the Middle East has increased the fiscal pressure by disrupting energy supplies and tightening financial conditions. Governments are having to choose between supporting their populations as prices rise or preserving fiscal space. Energy-importing countries are facing the largest costs, and some oil exporting countries such as the Gulf states are being directly affected by the war.
Global gross government debt increased to almost 94% of GDP in 2025; and is projected to reach 100% by 2029. Interest rates are higher, and there is greater market sensitivity to fiscal news. Government policy choices have increased permanent spending on entitlements or reduced revenues, particularly in some of the largest economies.
The United States government deficit is 7% to 8% of GDP although the economy is operating near full capacity, and there is no plan for debt consolidation. Gross debt is projected to reach 142% of GDP by 2031. For the US, both revenue and expenditure measures are necessary, given the scale of projected deficits. The country’s tax base must be broadened and tax expenditures reduced, with action to address pressures stemming from social security and Medicare.
Other advanced economies face a similar scenario. In the Euro area, growth could be increased by deepening the single market. In Canada, deeper internal market integration could increase productivity and strengthen the fiscal position in the long term.
China’s overall deficit has risen to nearly 8% of GDP, and its debt will be around 127% of GDP by 2031. Significant consolidation is needed over time to stabilize the debt position. China needs to continue fiscal expansion in the near term, focusing on boosting consumption and supporting the property sector. There should also be tax and social security reforms and debt restructuring of local government financing vehicles.
In low-income countries the decreasing levels of external aid mean that further domestic revenue mobilization is required. Well-designed and executed tax administration reforms can result in significant gains. Support for populations hit by high energy costs should be targeted to vulnerable households and viable businesses. Countries should avoid broad price subsidies if they carry large fiscal costs or are difficult to reverse.
There are some downside risks that could cause further deterioration in the global debt position. If there is prolonged conflict in the Middle East, government finances could be further strained by higher food and energy prices, lower economic activity and increasing defence spending. The global debt-at-risk could increase by an additional 4 percentage points.
A correction in asset valuations related to artificial intelligence could give rise to a significant fall in US stocks and spillovers to global financial conditions, increasing global debt-at-risk by a further 2.4 percentage points. The protectionist pressures and fragmentation of trade are pushing governments toward making industrial subsidies and introducing trade-related support with uncertain results for productivity and growth. Domestic instability increased by economic stress could further heighten the fiscal pressures.
