Ukraine's central bank has tightened monetary policy by increasing its key policy benchmark to 15.5% from 31 July 2026 to address persistent inflationary pressures. The National Bank of Ukraine also raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.8% while warning that the war and geopolitical risks continue to threaten the economic outlook.
Ukraine’s central bank has raised its key policy rate by 0.5 percentage points to 15.5%, effective 31 July 2026, citing persistent underlying inflationary pressures and expectations that headline inflation will accelerate further before easing.
The key policy rate is applied to calculate interest and penalties on late tax payments.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) said the move is intended to support the attractiveness of hryvnia-denominated assets, maintain foreign exchange market stability and keep inflation expectations under control. The central bank forecasts consumer inflation will reach 10% by the end of 2026 before slowing to 6.9% in 2027 and returning to its 5% target by the end of 2028.
The NBU also upgraded its 2026 real GDP growth forecast to 1.8%, while warning that the ongoing war, intensified Russian attacks on infrastructure, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East remain the main threats to the economic outlook. It said it stands ready to tighten monetary policy further if inflationary pressures continue to build.
This announcement was made on 30 July 2026.
