The budget forecast is developed every six years and covers a period of 12 years or more. Its parameters are taken into account when preparing the budget for the next financial year and the planning period.
Russia’s government has approved a decree on the Budget Forecast through 2042 on 15 December 2025.
The forecast sets out the characteristics and projected values of key federal budget indicators and their expected dynamics.
The Budget Forecast is based on two scenarios for the country’s socioeconomic development through 2042: a baseline scenario and a conservative scenario. The approved document takes into account expenditures related to fulfilling social obligations to citizens and achieving the national development goals set by the Russian President, including measures implemented under national projects and state programmes.
In forecasting budget parameters, key legislative changes forming the basis of the federal budget for 2026–2028 have been taken into account.
Under the baseline scenario, federal budget revenues are expected to grow steadily in real terms from 2026 onward, at an average annual rate of 2.1%. The non-oil and gas sectors are projected to be the main drivers of revenue growth after 2026, with non-oil and gas revenues increasing at an average annual rate of 2.9%. The primary sources of this growth are value-added tax and corporate income tax.
The federal budget expenditure ceiling is determined in accordance with the “budget rules.” Under the baseline scenario, real expenditures are projected to more than double by 2042 compared with their 2019 level.
The Budget Forecast is developed every six years and covers a period of 12 years or more. Its parameters are taken into account when preparing the budget for the next financial year and the planning period. The previous version of the Budget Forecast covered budget parameters through 2036.
Corporate tax revenue outlook
From 2026, corporate profit tax exemptions for gambling operators will be abolished, while overall corporate profit tax revenue is expected to remain stable at around 1.7–1.8% of GDP over the long term.
Customs, duties, and sector-specific taxes revenue outlook
The budget outlook includes several measures modifying customs and specific fees:
- Export Duties: Export customs duties on sunflower oil, sunflower seeds, and sunflower meal are being extended through 31 August 2028.
- Import Duties: Elevated import customs duties on select goods originating from foreign states and territories deemed to have committed unfriendly actions toward Russia are being extended.
