On 30 July 2021 the WTO released the World Trade Statistical Review for 2021, setting out the statistics that clarify trends in world trade.
Goods
The effect of the pandemic led to a fall of 8% in the value of world merchandise exports in 2020 and a contraction of 21% in cross-border services trade. Although there was a recovery in trade from the middle of 2020 this was not consistent across different regions. In the first quarter of 2021, the volume of merchandise exports increased in Asia and Europe, but was reduced slightly in the Americas and fell more significantly in the Africa and Middle East regions.
In manufacturing, the automotive sector decreased the most and world exports in the sector fell by 16% in 2020. Global exports of textiles rose by 16%, helped by the increased production of personal protective equipment (PPE). As a result of the pandemic, the exports of medical products increased by more than 16%.
Global value chains
The effects of the pandemic led to a significant disruption of global value chains in the first half of 2020 with global exports of intermediate goods decreasing by 10%. The value chains for high-tech goods and pharmaceutical and medical products were more resilient in the crisis. The volume of trade in intermediate goods began to recover in the third quarter of 2020.
Services
World trade in commercial services remained 9% lower in the first quarter of 2021 compared to the first quarter of 2020. The travel sector decreased by 62% in 2020 as a result of the various restrictive measures taken by governments during the pandemic. Global construction exports fell by 18% in 2020 as projects were delayed by the effects of the pandemic. The only service sectors that remained resilient during the pandemic were areas such as computer services, which grew by 8% in 2020, benefiting from the move towards remote working and the increase in the use of digital platforms.
Least Developed Countries
The export earnings of the least developed countries (LDCs) suffered particularly as a result of the drop in fuel prices which reached 60% between January and April 2020 and the travel restrictions which led to a severe fall in earnings from the travel industry. These two sectors are very important for the LDCs and although fuel exports have begun to recover in 2021 the travel and transport industries continue to be hit severely by the consequences of the pandemic.
Outlook for global trade
Although the main indicators of trade are showing that a recovery is beginning in the global trade in goods in 2021, the indicators for services show weaker growth. The recovery of global trade generally is dependent on fast global access to vaccines and is vulnerable to the emergence of new variants of the virus.
Digital transformation
An effect of the pandemic has been to speed up the process of digital transformation in many areas including in global goods and services trade. The increase in possibilities brought about by the digital economy has introduced wider trading possibilities for micro, small and medium enterprises. There is an increased need to improve the statistical measurement and monitoring of digital trade to identify the areas where businesses are taking advantage of the opportunities offered and to highlight the areas where there may be further barriers holding back trade.
