The October 2025 update of the Global Trade Outlook and Statistics noted that the WTO forecast for world merchandise trade volume growth in 2025 has risen to 2.4% (which is higher than the estimate of 0.9% in the interim outlook in August) 2025. However, the outlook for 2026 has fallen to 0.5% volume growth. The WTO forecast for trade in service now expects the export volume of trade in services to grow by 4.6% in 2025 and by 4.4% in 2026, which is slightly higher than the estimates from April 2025.
The updated outlook indicates that the volume of world merchandise trade grew by 4.9% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, so this was growing at a faster rate than previously expected. The reasons behind this vigorous trade expansion included the effect of businesses bringing forward imports into North America in anticipation of higher tariffs; favourable macroeconomic conditions such as supportive fiscal policies and growth in emerging markets; and a sharp increase in demand for AI-related goods.
It is difficult to determine how much of the boost to trade in the first half of the year was due to macroeconomic “push” factors but the April edition of Global Trade Outlook and Statistics noted that, if it were not for higher tariffs and rising policy uncertainty, macroeconomic conditions were expected to be supportive of trade growth in 2025.
The forecast for trade volumes in the second half of 2025 and for trade volumes in 2026 are less optimistic. The higher tariffs are now in place and trade policy is still uncertain, the acceleration of imports is expected to slow as the inventories are drawn down and as GDP growth slows. In developing countries there may be signs of weakness in trade and manufacturing output with reduced business and consumer confidence and slower employment and income growth. The new forecast therefore indicates stronger trade growth in 2025 followed by weaker trade growth in 2026.
The US dollar value of world merchandise trade increased 6% year-on-year in the first half of 2025. For trade in commercial services, the year-on-year growth slowed to 5% in the first quarter of 2025. but appears to have recovered to 9% in the second quarter of 2025 based on the preliminary data.
The report includes an analytical section on the role of trade policy in influencing trade imbalances. This section examines how trade balances respond to policy interventions, such as tariffs and macroeconomic policies.
