A World Bank research paper with the title It’s Not (Just) the Tariffs: Rethinking Non-Tariff Measures in a Fragmented Global Economy, by D. Taglioni and H. Kee, was published on 22 October 2025. The research paper looks at the impact of non-tariff measures on global trade. Non-tariff measures (NTMs) include measures such as food safety rules, product standards, licensing requirements, import or export bans or even countervailing duties. In recent years these have become more widespread and are used as a tool in many trade confrontations.
The paper notes that although NTMs are introduced for legitimate reasons such as ensuring the health and safety of imported products, they can also have the effect of further fragmenting trade, marginalizing low-capacity exporters, and distorting firm-level incentives. NTMs are growing in prevalence and have become central to the debate on trade fragmentation. Against a backdrop of increasing geopolitical rivalry and reconfiguring supply chains, NTMs increasingly determine who trades with whom, and under what conditions.
A first priority is to build quality infrastructure and certification systems in lower- and middle-income countries (LMICs), strengthening testing facilities and certification processes. The NTMs and their ad valorem equivalents (AVEs) must be integrated into trade diagnostics and market access assessments. Incorporating NTMs alongside tariffs and harmonizing classifications would make it easier to identify the hidden restrictiveness and clarify trade strategies. The NTMs imposed in isolation, without complementary policies, are often counterproductive, for example bans on certain imports can lead to shortages and losses in some industries. Reforms need to be introduced in line with the requirements of industrial sectors and as part of a coherent development strategy.
Greater transparency and accountability are required for NTMs by strengthening WTO notifications, clarifying provisions in regional and bilateral trade agreements, and monitoring the position systematically. Databases are particularly useful if they track NTMs in trade-equivalent terms. The NTMs need to remain aligned with open trade objectives.
Research and data priorities include the need to update and refine AVE estimation annually; and investigate the firm-level impacts of NTMs on global value chain participation, particularly for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the LMICs. There is also a need for analysis of NTM spillovers along domestic supply chains such as food and health, to help optimise the mix of NTMs and tariff measures; and a need to deepen the analysis of NTM proliferation and the trade-offs between regulatory autonomy and fragmentation. Understanding how NTMs reshape trade is important for reducing exclusion and advancing global development.
