New rate affects tax-related interest and penalty calculations from 25 July 2025.

The Russian Central Bank reduced the key interest rate to 18% on 25 July 2025, following a prior cut from 21% to 20% on 6 June 2025.

The key rate plays an important role in determining safe harbor interest rates and tax-related penalties under Russian tax law.

The Bank of Russia will maintain monetary conditions as tight as necessary to return inflation to the target in 2026. In the baseline scenario, this implies an average key rate in the range of 18.8-19.6% per annum in 2025 and 12.0-13.0% per annum in 2026, and means that monetary policy will remain tight for a long period.

Further decisions on the key rate will be made depending on the sustainability of the inflation slowdown and the dynamics of inflation expectations. According to the Bank of Russia’s forecast, given the monetary policy stance, annual inflation will decline to 6.0-7.0% in 2025, return to 4.0% in 2026 and stay at the target further on.