On 25 February 2026 the IMF held a press briefing to discuss the issues raised by the article IV report on the US economy.
The IMF emphasised that the US economy will continue to grow strongly in 2026 and 2027. US private sector entrepreneurs and workers showed a high level of innovation, adaptability and resilience in 2025 and the combination of dynamism, know-how and technology has shown itself in the strength of labour productivity. This supports growth in the US and creates positive spillovers to the global economy. Technology, investment inflows and the focus on reducing red tape could support greater economic dynamism and growth.
The US economy is projected to accelerate in 2026, growing at around 2.4% and continuing at a similar pace into 2027. The unemployment rate is expected to fall slightly to around 4%. However, the continuing rise in public debt remains a concern and needs to be given attention. Both federal and general government debt are projected to rise further, with the latter reaching 140% of GDP by 2030. The IMF has therefore made some recommendations on this, suggesting a broad range of policies to raise tax revenues and address structural imbalances in government programs such as social security and Medicare.
In relation to the use of tariffs, the IMF shares the US administration’s concern about the size of the trade and current account deficit. More needs to be done to eliminate the policy distortions in the US and in other countries, that have given rise to high external imbalances. However, the tariffs have a negative supply effect in the US, increasing goods price inflation and distorting resource allocation in the longer term. The US should therefore work with its trading partners to address the concerns arising and agree on a reduction in trade restrictions. It was noted that the US Supreme Court decision on tariffs was published after the IMF Article IV report was finalised, and the decision was therefore not covered in the report.
The US must look for ways to increase household savings. This could be done using greater tax incentives, retirement plans or saving incentives for education. The report notes that the government is currently looking at this issue.
The IMF’s Article IV report mentioned the strong institutional framework in the US and noted that the existing institutional protections and resourcing of the institutions need to be respected and protected. The report specifically mentioned the revenue administration, financial oversight and economic statistics. Commenting on a question on this, the Director of the IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department noted that there has been a reduction of around 15% percent in the federal workforce over the past year, and this must not be allowed to affect key functions like regulatory oversight or statistics agencies. Revenue administration statistics agencies in the US and elsewhere are often underfunded, but it is important to invest in these institutions.
