The OECD's 2026 Economic Impact Assessment, presented at a webinar on 15 July 2026, estimates the Global Minimum Tax has lifted average jurisdiction-level effective tax rates by 2.8-3.7% and cut profit-shifting by up to 44.6%, with an accompanying working paper on 2024 data finding no significant drop in investment or employment among in-scope multinationals.
The OECD has published a new analysis examining the economic impacts of the Pillar Two Global Minimum Tax, with the findings presented during a webinar held on 15 July 2026. Alongside the analysis, the OECD also released a working paper titled MNE Responses to the Global Minimum Tax, which provides an early empirical, ex post assessment of how multinational enterprises have responded to the introduction of the Global Minimum Tax.
OECD publishes new analysis on the economic impacts of the Global Minimum Tax
The OECD has released the 2026 Economic Impact Assessment of the Global Minimum Tax (GMT), providing new estimates of the expected effects of the GMT and presenting preliminary evidence from its first year of implementation. The findings were presented during an OECD webinar.
The updated assessment incorporates more recent data, improved modelling, and information on the current state of GMT implementation and the recently agreed Side-by-Side Package. It examines the expected effects of the GMT on effective tax rates, tax rate differentials, profit shifting and tax revenues.
The OECD also released a separate analysis, MNE Responses to the GMT, based on 2024 consolidated financial statement data, providing an initial assessment of outcomes following the first year of GMT implementation. The preliminary evidence suggests increases in effective tax rates among in-scope multinational enterprises relative to out-of-scope firms, while finding no statistically significant evidence of reductions in investment or employment among in-scope firms during the first year of implementation.
Key findings
Relative to a hypothetical scenario where the GMT was not implemented anywhere, the analysis found the following expected effects, noting these may take time to be realised.
- Average jurisdiction-level effective tax rates are estimated to increase by 2.8-3.7% on average under the current GMT framework, with effective tax rates in investment hubs estimated to rise by 5.5-6.9 %.
- Effective tax rate differentials between jurisdictions are estimated to decline by 19-25%, potentially leading to improved allocation of capital.
- The GMT is estimated to reduce profit-shifting substantially with an estimated reduction of between 22.6-44.6%.
- Global CIT revenues are estimated to rise by 3.2-5.4% per year.
- Initial post-implementation 2024 data suggests positive effective tax rate impacts of the GMT and finds no evidence of negative effects on investment or employment.
The webinar outlined the methodology, assumptions and results of the updated assessment and provided stakeholders with an opportunity to discuss the analysis and its implications. The webinar highlighted the role of the GMT in strengthening international tax co-operation, reducing BEPS activity, and enhancing stability in the international tax system.
The OECD will continue to monitor the implementation and impacts of the GMT as additional data become available. The updated assessment and accompanying analysis are intended to support the ongoing evaluation of the GMT and its effects over time.
MNE responses to the Global Minimum Tax
This paper provides an early empirical, ex post assessment of how MNEs have responded to the introduction of the GMT. The GMT, implemented in 2024, represents a fundamental change in international taxation. The paper analyses the realised responses of MNEs exploiting the EUR 750 million threshold to identify causal effects.
Specifically, the paper uses group level financial and ownership data from the Orbis database and implements a difference in differences strategy that compares MNEs just above and below the scope defining revenue threshold. The paper evaluates whether the GMT has affected MNE effective tax rates, investment, and employment, and whether firms adjusted their behaviour in anticipation of the reform.
The paper includes heterogeneity analysis to assess which company types and sectors drive the results. Finally, the paper uses the analysis on the impact of ETRs to estimate the potential revenues raised by the GMT in its first year of introduction.
