Ireland’s budget surplus is at risk, warns the Fiscal Advisory Council, as reliance on a few volatile multinational corporation tax receipts raises concerns over long-term fiscal stability.
Ireland’s Fiscal Advisory Council has warned that Ireland’s apparent budget surplus is heavily reliant on volatile corporation tax receipts from a small number of large multinational companies, raising concerns over the sustainability of public finances.
The Fiscal Assessment Report 2025, published on 26 November 2025, criticises the government’s approach as “budgeting like there’s no tomorrow” amid a strong economy.
The report highlights that real net policy spending is growing faster than planned and is expected to breach EU net spending limits. It notes a significant policy shift, with only 15% of corporation tax receipts projected to be saved next year, down from 32% this year, reducing the state’s capacity to address long-term costs such as an ageing population and climate change.
The Council urges the government to adopt multi-annual budgeting supported by legislated domestic fiscal rules and five-year forecasts. Such measures, it argues, would provide certainty over future funding, support better planning of public services, and ensure long-term fiscal stability.
